PAGCOR Projects Up to 19 Percent Drop in Philippines Gaming Revenue for 2026
Alejandro Tengco, Chairman and CEO of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation, delivered the updated revenue outlook during briefings held in early June 2026. The forecast shows gross gaming revenue sliding from the 2025 record of Php396.1 billion to a range between Php320 billion and Php350 billion, a contraction that could reach 19 percent. Tengco tied the expected shortfall directly to ongoing pressures from the Middle East conflict and to earlier regulatory changes that severed connections between licensed gaming platforms and popular e-wallet services.
The 2025 figure had marked an all-time high for the sector, yet the new projection reflects a sharp reversal driven by reduced discretionary spending among lower-income players who favor online gaming formats. Tengco emphasized that the conflict has raised living costs across the region, leaving less room in household budgets for recreational wagers. Those same households had previously sustained much of the online segment’s growth through convenient mobile deposits and quick withdrawals.
Core Drivers Behind the Forecasted Decline
The Middle East situation stands as the dominant factor in Tengco’s analysis, because it continues to push up fuel prices, food costs, and other essentials that squeeze consumer wallets. Lower-income participants, who make up a substantial share of online casino and sports-betting traffic, have curtailed activity as a direct result. Tengco noted that the impact appears most pronounced in the digital channel, where transaction volumes have already softened in the first half of 2026.
Compounding the external shock is the earlier decision to delink licensed platforms from several widely used e-wallet providers. That policy change, implemented to tighten financial oversight, removed a frictionless payment route that many casual players relied upon. Without those instant deposit options, participation rates among price-sensitive users dropped further, accelerating the revenue slide that Tengco now projects through the remainder of the year and into 2026.
Tourism Arrivals Offer Partial Offset
While the primary outlook remains downward, Tengco highlighted one counterbalancing trend: rising tourist arrivals, particularly from China. Renewed flight connectivity and eased visa procedures have lifted foot traffic at integrated resorts in Metro Manila and Clark, supporting table games and slot floors that cater to higher-spending visitors. Data from the first quarter of 2026 already showed modest gains in this segment, and officials expect the momentum to continue if regional stability holds.
Those arrivals, however, have not yet translated into enough additional revenue to fully counteract the contraction in the domestic online market. Tengco therefore presented the Php320–350 billion range as the most probable outcome, while leaving room for upward revision should tourism inflows exceed current expectations or if the Middle East conflict eases sooner than anticipated.
Context and Timing of the Announcement
The statement emerged during a period when PAGCOR was also releasing its annual performance review for 2025. That review underscored the record-breaking results achieved before the full effects of higher living costs and payment restrictions took hold. Tengco used the same platform to outline contingency planning, including targeted marketing aimed at premium international visitors and continued monitoring of online player behavior through the second half of 2026.
Government agencies and industry associations received the updated numbers in tandem with the public briefing, allowing downstream operators to adjust budgets and staffing models accordingly. No immediate policy reversals were signaled, yet Tengco indicated that PAGCOR would keep the e-wallet delinking framework under review in light of its measurable effect on participation rates.
Conclusion
The June 2026 forecast from PAGCOR therefore sets a clear benchmark: gross gaming revenue is expected to fall between Php320 billion and Php350 billion for the full year, down as much as 19 percent from the prior record. The decline stems primarily from reduced spending power among lower-income online players amid Middle East-related cost pressures, reinforced by the prior separation of licensed platforms from e-wallet services. Rising tourist arrivals from China provide the only noted mitigating influence, yet they are not projected to close the entire gap. Industry participants and regulators now have a defined numerical target against which actual monthly results will be measured through the remainder of 2026.